Morning update

The July ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.05 at $3.29. The July ‘26 crude oil contract is down $0.79 at $92.25.

Summary

Yesterday saw some strengthening in the near-term natural gas futures market, while farther out terms remained largely unchanged. The prompt month gained $0.12, while the 12-month strip gained $0.08, closing at $3.34/MMBtu and $3.52/MMBtu, respectively. Looking at supply and demand, U.S. dry production saw a sizeable 1.2 Bcf/d day-over-day pickup to 108.2 Bcf/d, standing in contrast to the production decreases seen earlier in the week. LNG feedgas continues to come in well below max capacity, now at 16.5 Bcf/d and seeing no day-over-day change. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has reported a 95 Bcf storage injection for the week to May 29, below market analysts’ 99 Bcf predictions, last year's 119 Bcf build during the same week, and the 101 Bcf 5-yr average. Looking at the weather forecast, the Northeast, Midwest, and Rockies are expecting well-above-average temperatures for the next few days, before that heat is forecasted to shift to the West Coast by mid-June. The rest of the country is largely expecting seasonally average weather over the same time period. 

Market Update 06.05.26

Market Settles 06.04.26

Morning update

The July ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.03 at $3.17. The July ‘26 crude oil contract is down $2.02 at $89.28.

Summary

Natural gas production remained broadly in line with the prior week, averaging between 106 Bcf/d and the low 108 Bcf/d range. In contrast, total U.S. demand has weakened, averaging below 100 Bcf/d over the past seven days. While temperatures have begun to trend warmer, forward forecasts have moderated expectations over the next 20 days, contributing to bearish pressure on near-term NYMEX pricing. LNG export volumes also remain subdued due to ongoing maintenance, averaging around 16 Bcf/d over the past week. This maintenance is typical for the May through June period, though some facilities have schedules extending into the later summer months. Geopolitically, tensions overseas remain elevated, with continued military activity on both sides. Although having very little effect on the domestic natural gas market, this ongoing conflict is providing support to oil prices and maintaining upward pressure on near-term global LNG prices.

Market Update 06-09-26

Market Settles 06-09-26

Morning update

The July ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.08 at $3.29. The July ‘26 crude oil contract is down $3.18 at $92.84.

Summary

The Jul ’26 NYMEX natural gas contract moved five cents higher yesterday, while the rest of the curve was relatively flat day-over-day. Fundamentally, the setup is firmer this morning as production has eased from a recent high of 108.1 Bcf/d to 106.0 Bcf/d, driven by declines in the Northeast and Midcon. Demand remains largely unchanged domestically, though higher LNG feedgas (+0.4 Bcf/d) and Mexican exports (+0.2 Bcf/d) are providing incremental support. LNG feedgas briefly dipped below 16 Bcf/d earlier this week - a multi-month low - as maintenance continues to weigh on flows despite strong global demand. Attention now turns to this morning’s EIA report, with the consensus of market analysts expecting a 98 Bcf injection. A print in line with expectations would leave the year-over-year surplus roughly flat, continuing its recent tightening trend. 

Market Update 06-04-26

Market Settles - 06-03-26

Morning update

The July ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.07 at $3.22. The July ‘26 crude oil contract is up $2.34 at $89.70.

Summary

Total U.S. demand for natural gas  softened over the course of last week, falling from highs above 100 Bcf/d to below 95 Bcf/d by Saturday, before recovering to nearly 100 Bcf/d to start the new week. The dip was largely driven by weaker power burn, as well as a fractional dip in exports to Mexico. Feedgas for LNG exports remained relatively stable near 17.4 Bcf/d for most of the week, with a slight pullback to 16.9 Bcf/d over the weekend. Turning to supply, dry production increased by 0.6 Bcf/d week-over-week, while year-to-date production is up 3.4 Bcf/d compared to this time last year. Looking ahead, demand is likely to rebound modestly as early summer heat begins to build, particularly in key power markets, supporting stronger power burn, while LNG feedgas flows should return to near-capacity as maintenance wraps up. Supply is expected to remain consistent, barring any disruptions. Overall, as June 1 marks the unofficial start of summer, the market should return to a more weather-driven demand environment, with tightening balances possible if heat intensifies beyond current expectations.

Market Update - 06.01.26

Market Settles - 05.29.26

Morning update

The July ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.01 at $3.18. The July ‘26 crude oil contract is up $2.34 at $96.10.

Summary

The natural gas market saw minimal movement yesterday, with the prompt month falling by just a penny to close the day at $3.167/MMBtu. The 2027 and 2028 strips both moved by less than a penny on the day, while 2029 and 2030 each fell by two cents. The market remains backwardated for 2028-2033. From a fundamentals perspective, natural gas production is expected to increase slightly to 107.5 Bcf/d. This is in line with recent days and just slightly above the May average. LNG export feedgas is forecasted to strengthen to 16.5 Bcf/d after falling below 16 Bcf/d yesterday. Overall demand is expected to remain mostly flat today. Market analysts are expecting a 99 Bcf injection into storage to be reported tomorrow for the week to May 29, which would be below the 5-year average of 101 Bcf and the year-ago injection of 119 Bcf. Storage levels would still remain at a healthy surplus to the 5-year average, but overall inventory would be flat with last year. Forecasts are showing warmer-than-average temperatures in the northern half of the U.S. through the end of the week, while the above-average temperatures become concentrated in the central part of the country next week.

Market Update - 06.03.26

Market Settles - 06.02.26

Morning update

The July ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.03 at $3.14. The July ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.67 at $91.48.

Summary

Th natural gas prompt month lost 11 cents yesterday, as July 2026 settled at $3.18/MMBtu. August and September lost about 10 cents each, settling at $3.21 and $3.18, respectively. Natural gas near-term futures eased as the White House has indicated once again that the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and a ceasefire is reachable over the next week. Demand for natural gas continues to soften with total U.S. demand forecasted to drop 1.2 Bcf/d today. The drop in demand is mainly driven by a 1.5 Bcf/d drop in power burn. Industrial demand rose a meager 0.1 Bcf/d, and resident and commercial demand is expected to rise just 0.3 Bcf/d. LNG export feedgas is expected to decline for the fourth day in a row, dropping 0.1 Bcf/d and sitting at 16.2 Bcf/d today. LNG feedgas continues to decline as only one vessel has been traveling to China, down from as many as five vessels in the prior week.

Market Update 06-02-26

Market Settles 06-02-26

Morning update

The Apr ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.11 at $3.06. The Apr ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.06 at $96.20.

Summary

Morning update
The Apr ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.11 at $3.06. The Apr ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.06 at $96.20.

Summary
U.S. natural gas futures saw modest strength yesterday, largely tracking broader global energy markets rather than a shift in domestic fundamentals. The Apr ’26 NYMEX contract is up roughly $0.20 since initial U.S. strikes against Iran, a muted response compared to Brent crude oil’s more than $25 rally. Movement across the rest of the curve remains limited as healthy inventories continue to insulate the market, with end-of-season storage tightening slightly to 1.827 Tcf, still well above year-ago and 5-year average levels, and the market beginning to price the first storage injection of the year as warmer weather caps demand. Production rebounded to 107.4 Bcf/d, while LNG feedgas demand strengthened to 20.2 Bcf/d on higher Sabine Pass flows. International gas markets remain significantly more bullish following QatarEnergy’s halt at Ras Laffan, pushing global prices sharply higher, while Goldman notes oil prices are likely to trend higher as long as Hormuz flows remain depressed, reinforcing elevated geopolitical risk across energy markets even as U.S. gas remains fundamentally insulated.

Market Update - 06.08.26

Market Settles - 06.05.26

Morning update

The August ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.04 at $2.96. The September ‘26 crude oil contract is up $4.69 at $91.52.

Summary

Natural gas prices moved higher yesterday, with the Aug '26 contract settling at $2.925/MMBtu, up 3.3 cents on the day, while modest gains were seen across the forward curve as calendar strips and winter packages also finished higher. Weather forecasts remain relatively mild across the eastern half of the country in the near-term, though warmer-than-normal conditions are expected to persist across the Plains, Rockies, and Western U.S. into the first week of August. Dry gas production remains steady at 107.6 Bcf/d, while power burn demand posted a sharp day-over-day decline as cooler temperatures across key eastern load centers reduced cooling demand. Today's storage report is expected to show a 29 Bcf injection for the week ending July 17, which would be in line with last year's 27 Bcf build and the 30 Bcf 5-year average injection. Much of the price support came from a sharp escalation in the Iran conflict. Global energy markets responded aggressively, with Brent crude surging nearly 5% to around $98/bbl, and European TTF natural gas prices climbing back above $20/MMBtu. 

Market Update - 07-23-26

Market Settles 07-22-26