Hurricane season 2023 outlook

Early spring has come and gone, and we can feel the temperatures rising. Now that summer’s almost here, we can feel the anticipation of pool time, vacation getaways, and many long, hot afternoons. For many who live near or travel to coastal areas, hurricane season is also top-of-mind.

To that end, we caught up with Senior Meteorologist, Jon deJong, in the first installment of our four-part summer scoop series. Together, we take a closer look at the impending hurricane season and how you can prepare for it.

Sure, I’m a senior meteorologist here at NRG, part of a team that makes up the NRG weather desk. I've been forecasting the weather for almost 20 years now. I love doing my job; the weather's always changing, so it never gets stale!

Weather impacts every part of every business; it causes reactions in the market and affects how we operate our plants. As meteorologists for NRG, we provide weather data, including daily, weekly, and seasonal forecasts, to anybody in the company that needs it to plan operations, prepare for impending events, and mitigate risks.

Over the last couple of summers, we've had a La Niña, which is essentially cooler waters along the equator in the Pacific. La Niña pushes the subtropical jet stream northward, causing it to weaken over the Eastern Pacific. That tends to create more wind shear¹ over the Pacific and less wind shear over the Atlantic. Less wind shear makes it more favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes; that’s why we've had a lot of systems move through the Atlantic over the last three to four summers.

However, this spring we’ve been moving towards an El Niño, which is a climate factor that can impact weather patterns across the globe. This means warmer waters along the equator in the Pacific, more impact from the subtropical jet², and more shear across the Atlantic, all of which suppress tropical activity a bit.

The one fly in the ointment is the water temps in the Atlantic. If they were a bit closer to normal, I would say to expect a less active tropical season. But temperatures haven’t quite dropped to that point, so there’s still some fuel that these systems could use.³ This warmer water may allow more named systems to develop, but the wind shear associated with El Niño should help mitigate storm intensity. The expectation for this year is a normal or barely above normal season for named systems, and a normal or slightly below normal season for hurricanes. Looking at the 10-year-average, that would be about 16 named tropical systems, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Well, we’ve got a lot of really accurate models that can show us what’s developing 15 or more days in advance. As systems evolve, we have satellites that update us every 15 minutes on what's transpiring out in the far Eastern Atlantic. 

We've also got hurricane hunters that will fly into the eye wall of hurricanes if it's a particularly threatening storm. These missions are crucial because they gather real-time observations of what's going on inside the storm — wind speeds, pressure, rain rates — and put that data into the models that we use. This gives us more accurate predictions from the models themselves.

The real benefit of these predictions comes to light in the three to five days before landfall. We can start to really see trends evolve day by day, hour by hour, as well as whether the storm is deviating from the official track and what the potential impact to a local area may be.

It’s important to understand what your neighborhood and home are most susceptible to. Consider the structure of your home as well as your home’s surroundings. If wind and heavy rain were imminent, where could you mitigate risks?

Something that’s often overlooked heading into hurricane season is to check up on your homeowner’s insurance or your renter’s insurance. Make sure you know what it does and doesn’t cover in the case of catastrophic damage, and document all of your possessions.

Typical homeowner’s insurance and renter’s insurance plans do not cover flooding. As well, most flood insurance plans don’t take effect for 30 days after purchase.

If you have a generator, test it and fuel it up now if needed; the last thing you want is a generator that doesn't work because it’s out of fuel.

Also, consider any neighbors that might need help. Ask your neighbors if you can help them prepare, and work together as a neighborhood to make sure everyone is ready and protected.

When assessing the threat of a storm, I implore people not to focus only on the category level of a hurricane (which indicates the wind speed), because the actual impact could be significant. The impact from tropical systems amounts to so much more than wind. A low-grade hurricane or tropical storm may appear less dangerous on the surface, but significant flooding can occur even if winds aren’t as strong.

You need to have a disaster kit. That includes non-perishable food, water, and prescription medicine for each person and pet in your residence for three to five days. You probably want more than that in water, because some historical storms have left folks with no power for weeks.

Some important items to consider:

• first aid kit
• emergency radio
• moist towelettes and other items you need for personal sanitation (because you might not have running water)
• a can opener for non-perishable food items
• eyeglasses and contact solution
• blankets and infant formula
• waterproof matches
• feminine supplies

If you’ve lived in or near a high-risk area for some time, you might have created a disaster kit already. Check and make sure nothing has expired.

Lastly, make sure your supplies are in a well-known location so that you or anyone in your household can easily grab them and leave if necessary.

Have vital information written down. We live in a digital age. If you lose power for an extended amount of time, the internet and cell towers could also be down. Think about what information you would need access to if that happened.

Also, make sure you know what zone you live in so that you’ll know whether you’re in an area that’s being advised to leave.

If you do live in an evacuation zone, make sure you map out multiple routes and that friends and family know where you'd go. Write down an emergency contact list.

The National Hurricane Center is very, very good and can be depended on for general hurricane forecasting. Local resources will be more in-tune with specific area impact, including flood risks and flash flood risks. They're also watching storm surge, or the rise in seawater level. The National Weather Service and your local weather service office is where you would want to get forecast information from.

The most impactful summertime weather-related issue that has been more frequent over the past few years is flooding. And this goes hand in hand with tropical weather. It has the same kind of risk and impact. If storm outbreaks happen into the summertime months, we are likely to see an increase of flooding and flash flooding. All it takes is one flooding event to impact someone's life, so it's very important to be aware, and to possibly have a small flood kit. It can be very similar to your hurricane disaster kit, with water and supplies to last you for a few days.

And one more specific note about this summer: flooding preparedness will be even more crucial this year because it looks like we may be heading into a wetter summer across the southern U.S.

Between cookouts, baseball, outdoor concerts, and more — we’re going to have a great summer! Before it begins, let’s all take the time now to gather the essentials we need to be ready and stay safe no matter what comes. Hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, so don’t wait.

For an extensive hurricane preparedness checklist, take a look at Reliant’s Storm Preparedness Checklist. Looking for ways you can power anything you need wherever you are? 

¹ Wind shear refers to any change in wind speed or direction along a straight line. When it comes to hurricanes, wind shear is often the most critical factor controlling hurricane formation and destruction. Weather Underground (wunderground.com)

² The subtropical jet stream, a fast-moving current of air circulating above Earth, is one of two major jet streams that shape weather patterns around the world. Jet stream facts and information (nationalgeographic.com)

³ Ocean temperatures above the threshold of 79 degrees Fahrenheit enable hurricanes to form and strengthen.